Selected Peer-Reviewed Articles & Book Chapters
2024. "When Actions Speak Louder than Words: Adversary Perceptions of Nuclear No-First-Use Pledges," with Lisa Michelini and Vipin Narang, International Security, 48(4): 7-46.
2023. "The Meaning of China's Nuclear Modernization," with Joshua Rovner, Journal of Strategic Studies, online preview.
2022. "Then What? Assessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan," with Brendan Rittenhouse Green, International Security, 47(1): 7-45.
2019. "Emerging Technology and Intra-War Escalation Risks: Evidence from the Cold War, Implications for Today," Journal of Strategic Studies, 42(6): 864-887.
2019. "Emerging Technologies and Strategic Stability," with Todd Sechser and Neil Narang, Journal of Strategic Studies, 42(6): 727-735.
2019. "The U.S.-China Nuclear Relationship: Why Competition Is Likely to Intensify," Brookings Global China Series (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, September): 1-15.
2017. "Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States," International Security, 41(4), spring: 50-92.
2017. "Civil-Military Pathologies and Defeat in War: Tests Using New Data," Journal of Conflict Resolution, with Vipin Narang, forthcoming.
2016. “Different Threats, Different Militaries: Explaining Organizational Practices in Authoritarian Armies,” Security Studies, 25(1), spring: 111-141.
2016. “The Future of U.S. Force Posture in the Gulf: The Case for a Residual Forward Presence,” in Crude Strategy: Rethinking the U.S. Military Commitment to Defend Persian Gulf Oil, edited by Charles Glaser and Rose Kelanic (Georgetown University Press).
2015. “When War Helps Civil-Military Relations: Prolonged Interstate Conflict and the Reduced Risk of Coup Attempts,” with Varun Piplani, Journal of Conflict Resolution (February): 1-27.
2014. “Hegemony, Force Posture, and the Provision of Public Goods: The Once and Future Role of Outside Powers in Securing Persian Gulf Oil,” with Joshua Rovner, Security Studies 23(3), fall: 548-581.
2013. “The Puzzle of Personalist Performance: Iraqi Battlefield Effectiveness in the Iran-Iraq War,” Security Studies, 22(2), spring: 180-221.
2008. “Closing Time: Assessing Possible Outcomes of U.S.-Iranian Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz,” International Security, 33(1), summer: 82-117.
2005. “Striking a Balance: the Lessons of U.S.-Russian Nuclear Materials Security Cooperation,” Non-Proliferation Review 12(1): 1-35.
2023. "The Meaning of China's Nuclear Modernization," with Joshua Rovner, Journal of Strategic Studies, online preview.
2022. "Then What? Assessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan," with Brendan Rittenhouse Green, International Security, 47(1): 7-45.
2019. "Emerging Technology and Intra-War Escalation Risks: Evidence from the Cold War, Implications for Today," Journal of Strategic Studies, 42(6): 864-887.
2019. "Emerging Technologies and Strategic Stability," with Todd Sechser and Neil Narang, Journal of Strategic Studies, 42(6): 727-735.
2019. "The U.S.-China Nuclear Relationship: Why Competition Is Likely to Intensify," Brookings Global China Series (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, September): 1-15.
2017. "Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States," International Security, 41(4), spring: 50-92.
2017. "Civil-Military Pathologies and Defeat in War: Tests Using New Data," Journal of Conflict Resolution, with Vipin Narang, forthcoming.
2016. “Different Threats, Different Militaries: Explaining Organizational Practices in Authoritarian Armies,” Security Studies, 25(1), spring: 111-141.
2016. “The Future of U.S. Force Posture in the Gulf: The Case for a Residual Forward Presence,” in Crude Strategy: Rethinking the U.S. Military Commitment to Defend Persian Gulf Oil, edited by Charles Glaser and Rose Kelanic (Georgetown University Press).
2015. “When War Helps Civil-Military Relations: Prolonged Interstate Conflict and the Reduced Risk of Coup Attempts,” with Varun Piplani, Journal of Conflict Resolution (February): 1-27.
2014. “Hegemony, Force Posture, and the Provision of Public Goods: The Once and Future Role of Outside Powers in Securing Persian Gulf Oil,” with Joshua Rovner, Security Studies 23(3), fall: 548-581.
2013. “The Puzzle of Personalist Performance: Iraqi Battlefield Effectiveness in the Iran-Iraq War,” Security Studies, 22(2), spring: 180-221.
2008. “Closing Time: Assessing Possible Outcomes of U.S.-Iranian Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz,” International Security, 33(1), summer: 82-117.
2005. “Striking a Balance: the Lessons of U.S.-Russian Nuclear Materials Security Cooperation,” Non-Proliferation Review 12(1): 1-35.
Selected Additional Writing
2021. “Don’t Sink the Nuclear Submarine Deal: The Benefits of AUKUS Outweigh the Proliferation Risks,” Foreign Affairs Snapshot, September 27.
2021. “The U.S.-China Nuclear Relationship: Growing Escalation Risks and Implications for the Future,” Testimony to the U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commission, June 10.
2020. “The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman Behavior Doesn’t Work,” The Washington Quarterly (fall), with Samuel Seitz.
2020. "Was it risky for the U.S. to take public responsibility for killing Soleimani?" The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, January 3.
2020. "The Iran crisis has calmed down-- but things won't ever go back to how they were," The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, with Christopher Clary, January 12.
2019. "Are nuclear weapons keeping the India-Pakistan crisis from escalating-- or making it more dangerous?" The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, March 5.
2017. "Trump's Military Budget Minus a Plan," The New York Times, March 6.
2016. “Why Victory in Mosul Won’t Solve America’s Iraq Conundrum,” Lawfare blog post, with Joshua Rovner, April 10.
2015. “Why the U.S. (Still) Can’t Train the Iraqi Army,” The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, with Austin Long, September 22.
2015. “The U.S. Leaked Its War Plan in Iraq. Why?” The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, with Joshua Rovner, February 27.
2014. “What Would a New U.S. Military Look Like?” New York Times Room for Debate, July 14.
2014. “Why the Iraqi Army Collapsed (and what can be done about it),” The Monkey Cage Blog at the Washington Post, with Keren Fraiman and Austin Long, June 13.
2014. “Less Is More: The Future of the American Military in the Persian Gulf,” Washington Quarterly, 37(3), with Joshua Rovner.
2007. “Deterring a Nuclear 9/11,” Washington Quarterly 30(2): 21-34.
2021. “The U.S.-China Nuclear Relationship: Growing Escalation Risks and Implications for the Future,” Testimony to the U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commission, June 10.
2020. “The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman Behavior Doesn’t Work,” The Washington Quarterly (fall), with Samuel Seitz.
2020. "Was it risky for the U.S. to take public responsibility for killing Soleimani?" The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, January 3.
2020. "The Iran crisis has calmed down-- but things won't ever go back to how they were," The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, with Christopher Clary, January 12.
2019. "Are nuclear weapons keeping the India-Pakistan crisis from escalating-- or making it more dangerous?" The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, March 5.
2017. "Trump's Military Budget Minus a Plan," The New York Times, March 6.
2016. “Why Victory in Mosul Won’t Solve America’s Iraq Conundrum,” Lawfare blog post, with Joshua Rovner, April 10.
2015. “Why the U.S. (Still) Can’t Train the Iraqi Army,” The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, with Austin Long, September 22.
2015. “The U.S. Leaked Its War Plan in Iraq. Why?” The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, with Joshua Rovner, February 27.
2014. “What Would a New U.S. Military Look Like?” New York Times Room for Debate, July 14.
2014. “Why the Iraqi Army Collapsed (and what can be done about it),” The Monkey Cage Blog at the Washington Post, with Keren Fraiman and Austin Long, June 13.
2014. “Less Is More: The Future of the American Military in the Persian Gulf,” Washington Quarterly, 37(3), with Joshua Rovner.
2007. “Deterring a Nuclear 9/11,” Washington Quarterly 30(2): 21-34.
Header image: deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln, underway in the Persian Gulf